The Southeast experienced one of its most significant droughts in recent history during the winter and spring, with South Georgia and North Florida among the hardest-hit areas. During General Session 1, David Zierden, state climatologist with Florida State University, examined the causes of the drought, its impacts and what the transition to a strong El Niño could mean for the months ahead.
The drought developed rapidly, moving from relatively dry conditions in the fall to extreme and exceptional drought by early spring. Some areas experienced rainfall deficits of 8 to 17 inches, with portions of South Georgia, North Florida, Alabama and the Carolinas recording their driest winter on record. The lack of tropical systems during the previous hurricane season, combined with La Niña conditions in the Pacific, contributed significantly to the dryness.
The drought affected rivers, streams, groundwater and wildfire activity throughout the region. While recent rainfall has brought significant improvement, portions of Florida and the Carolinas continue to experience drought conditions.
Looking ahead, the weather pattern has shifted dramatically. A strong El Niño has developed in the tropical Pacific and is expected to persist through winter and into spring. Historically, El Niño brings more frequent storms and above-normal rainfall to the Southeast, along with generally cooler temperatures. Zierden emphasized that the strength of this El Niño increases confidence in that forecast, although it does not necessarily mean rainfall will be greater than during every other El Niño event.
El Niño also typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity, although warmer ocean temperatures associated with climate change continue to increase the potential for rapid hurricane intensification.
Zierden also addressed weather-modification myths, explaining the limited role of cloud seeding and debunking claims about chemtrails, weather radar and technology steering hurricanes.